Mitchell – Australia 2028

The 2PP swings to Labor at the last two elections were over double the nationwide swings – 7.9% in 2022 and 6.7% in 2025 – both were more than double the nationwide swings. A combined swing of 14.6% to Labor is surely a product of suburban sprawl and demographic changes. I can’t think of a seat (outside WA) that has swung that much over two elections.

At the 2013 election, the 2PP margin reached 22.1% – the highest of any Liberal seat. Redistributions and suburban sprawl reduced the semi-rural parts. There’s lots of first home buyers and middle to high-income, white-collar professionals.

@Votante Aston and Berowra have similar huge swings over 2022 and 2025.

If it wasn’t for the fact that this seat contains the Hills shire (home of Hillsong, no more need to be said) this could’ve easily been a Labor seat in 2025 given the demographic changes and swings to Labor in the outer suburbs.

Alex Hawke probably got the shock of his life when he found himself defending a seat with double digits and ended up barely over 3% afterwards. If Labor actually tried Scomo Lite would’ve been punted like the rest of the others.

Berowra and Mitchell could both be seats to watch if another bad night for the Liberals ensues in 2028.

If Alex Hawke retires it probably helps the Liberals, as I can’t imagine that he’d have much of a personal vote here.

There is also lots of densification in the seat which further dilutes voter share from semi-rural areas and original voters

@Votant I think Bennelong swung a tiny bit more

I believe either Mitchell or Berowra are winnable for Labor in the long-run. Liberals need a standout candidate post-Alex Hawke. Mitchell is becoming more like Middle Sydney.

@Dan M, SCart, Bennelong has had a bigger combined swing going by AEC’s numbers (doesn’t account for redistributions).

Aston and Berowra had slightly lower combined swings.

I have pointed this out before. I think the Pentecostal influence in this seat is overstated it only makes up 2% of the seat and there is actually more Hindus in Mitchell than Pentecostals. I have also compared Mitchell, Aston to parts of Surburban Texas, Atlanta etc. Areas with McMansions, family orinted, aspirational. However, both white collar and increasingly diverse. Trump has undeperformed in such areas. The ethnic diversity of this area it what sets it apart from Cook which is probably the capital city seat that is least likely to fall.
Before the election i answered the question what if there was an Australian Donald Trump. I pointed out that Berowra and Mitchell will be made marginal and Aston will fall. I also pointed out that Cook will be fine for an Australian Trump.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2025/dickson2025/comment-page-2#comment-824074

A few remarks on this seat as a former resident:
– I die a little bit inside whenever someone rushes to claim that Pentecostalism is a significant factor in this seat. Just take a look at the census numbers. The Christian conservatism here (to the extent to which it is relevant – and it is becoming less relevant) comes predominantly from Sydney Anglicans (who, by the way, are dead opposed to prosperity theology).
– The ABC did a piece a few months ago on population growth in Sydney over the next decade, and it shows one of the Castle Hill SA2s (I forget which one) has the highest projected growth of any SA2 in Greater Sydney. Expect demographic change to continue, and rapidly so.
– Check out the census data for SA1 11501155624 – this covers just the Atmosphere complex next to Castle Hill station. This gives a good picture of the demographic that is moving into The Hills – young, very CALD, and well-educated.
– I lived in the part of Rouse Hill that was transferred from Mitchell to Greenway, and I am still shocked by the swing there at the last election, and am still yet to hear a good explanation for it. Is it not evidence that Labor can win Mitchell with a concerted campaign? If I recall correctly, Alex Hawke lives/lived in Rouse Hill. I don’t know how much of a personal vote he had.

The Hills Shire is associated with Pentacostalism because of Hillsong which is headquartered in Norwest. I agree that a small percentage of people in Mitchell are actually Pentcostal. There is a more significant Hindu and atheist/agnostic population.

@Nicholas, there were massive swings to Labor in Rouse Hill and Box Hill in 2025. I believe it’s because of the redistribution into a Labor electorate and Michelle Rowland’s personal vote had an effect. Also, urban sprawl has made the area less conservative.

One warning about Pentecostal Census figures:
I have been told before (by a former Hills Shire resident mind you) that Pentecostals aren’t very self-aware of their theology and that they are Pentecostals.
Therefore, they may say they are some other form of Christian (anglican, catholic, protestant) in the Census meaning the actual percnetage of Pentecostals in the Hills Shire may be much more than 2%. (But presumably still less than the 8% for Hindus)

Votante and to think rowland is only there because of the incompetence of James diaz

@ Leon
I am not sure that a Pentecostal who attends a non-denomination church or one not clearly labelled would tick Catholic on the census. A Catholic would be someone who attends a Catholic church or somone who may not be practicing but is of Catholic heritage. A Catholic who attends a chuch of another denomination will no longer be seen as Catholic. To a lesser extent, that is the case with Anglicans both churches are clearly labelled. There are people in the census who may say Christians nfd (not further defined) those people may include Pentecostals who are not very self-aware of their Theology. There is of course Conservative Christians of traditional denominations like Anglicans, Catholic for example Moira Deeming is Presybterian. However, there is no way to know whether a Catholic who lives in Glenhaven and whose son attends Redfield College in Dural is more religious/conservative that a more affluent one who lives in a waterfront mansion in Hunters Hill and whose son attends St Ignatious College, Riverview by looking at census figures.

CJ, my impression from campaigning is that Alex Hawke has a huge personal vote. Most voters could make him and many could identify things he has done for the local area.
The dramatic swings in Rouse Hill are evidence that people were happy to switch to Labor when they didn’t know the Liberal candidate.
With a different candidate for either Liberal (less well known) or Labor (more well known or willing to actually campaign, this seat would have been a good chance of going to Labor at the 2025 election.

It is true that some Pentecostals – likely proportionally more so than other denominations – end up as “Christian, nfd” on the census. I am doubtful that many would end up under other denominations. Accounting for this, even generously, still does not get Pentecostalism near to the level of influence that people tend to assume it has here.

Nimalan
Redfield is an Opus Dei inspired Catholic school. You would only send your son there – as friends of mine did – if you were very much at the conservative end of the Catholic spectrum. It is a school driven ideology, you wouldn’t choose it out of geographic convenience. Still devout and church going Catholics could send their kids to Riverview or a systemic Catholic school depending on their income or inclination – and their politics could be anywhere on the spectrum.

@ redistributed thanks for letting me know I did not know much of Redfield College just that it was a Catholic boys school in the Hills District I just used it to show that I cannot presume that a Catholic who lives in the Hills district is more religious or Conservative than one who lives on the North Shore. fun fact Tony Abbott went to Riverview. I wonder about Oakhill college in Castle Hill

@Ben or perhaps it’s the opposite, like with Barnaby Joyce. You would never dream of a Labor-held state seat in the Hills.